NATO and the Kremlin finally find common ground as they team up to deprive the Russian Armed Forces of secure communications.

First, they came for Starlink and I complained about it on Telegram..then they came for Telegram and I decided to write up this post.

Sometimes our official speakers are silent and its infuriating. We are waiting: well, say at least something, you can’t just be silent in such a situation! And then they say something and we realize: yes, it would be better if they had kept quiet.

https://t.me/germansadulaev/4260

That’s another Telegram Post from German Sadulaev whom my Readers might remember from my post about why Russia can’t win the SMO via forcing Ukraine’s unconditional capitulation. He is referring to Peskov weighing in on the situation in Russia regarding the status of Telegram which serves as the go to source for news, networking etc for Normal Russians. To the Kremlin’s consternation it’s not much of an exaggeration to assert that in Russia the Public Square=Telegram. But the importance of Durovs app for Russia doesn’t end there, it also serves as the Armed Forces basic platform of communication/coordination at the tactical level due to the absence of secure comms issued from MOD. Since I’m located in Belarus, I can’t comment firsthand on how the app is working in Russia, but friends located over there say it’s just a lot slower but with a VPN it’s almost like normal. My usual scroll slop/news channels are posting with the same volume as always, so the situation doesn’t seem to be catastrophic on that end. Maybe our Man on the ground over there Siberian Exile can fill us in but there are mixed signals coming from the Troops at the front ranging from “we will get by” to “shits all fucked right and proper”.

Peskov reassured society that the Telegram Restrictions were not only safe but also effective with the following:

I don’t think it’s possible to imagine that front-line communications are provided by means of Telegram or some messenger. It is difficult and impossible to imagine that. Therefore, in any case, of course, specialists should talk about this

Much like the vaccine had no adverse side effects neither will the restrictions being imposed on Telegram. The pretext behind the Restrictions is that the app doesn’t fully comply with Russian Laws unlike say the Oligarchs who have financed the AFU or evade sending money they make on Russian Exports back to Russia. Needless to say Pekovs assertion that it’s impossible that Russian Troops have to rely on Messenger Apps for secure tactical communications was met with a combination of derision or resigned disappointment as with Sadulevs Post above. Whether Peskov genuinely doesn’t know that the Troops rely on Telegram or not is beside the point because he doesn’t give a shit anyway. If he had said “well the Troops make decent money, they will figure out something” or “look it’s better for me and my buddies if you Troglodytes have less access to news that’s unfiltered and if you have to migrate to MAX that will be better for my stock portfolio” it would have been better received by the Public. The first alternative variant indicates acknowledgment of an issue and the second conveys honest hostility and self-interest unlike the clueless indifference of what he actually said.

What the Telegram Restrictions are actually about IMO is forcing more ordinary Russians onto the “domestic” Messenger known as MAX. I don’t have any experience with MAX but my understanding is that it comes pre-installed on all smartphones bought in Russia these days. My impression from reading about it is that it generally sucks and your data isn’t safe with it. The following appears in the user agreement when you agree to make an account:

"The company has the right to transfer contact phone numbers to the NBCO "VK Payment Solutions"""
The application works using the users phone number"
"The Company has the right to analyze and research malicious programs and codes"
"The Company has the right to terminate this Agreement at any time without notifying the User and without giving reasons"

and

The Company collects and stores information in order to provide the User with the opportunity to add Contacts to the User's contact list... to notify the User in cases where contacts from the address book of the User's mobile device are also registered for the use of the Service

In other words the application uploads your contacts and data which is how it makes revenue considering it’s a “free service”… just like every other free service. The main concern with MAX is naturally that FSB will have all your info. A meme from a popular Russian parody/humor Telegram Page:

A calculator will be added to the MAX messenger, showing the users approximate prison term based on his correspondence.

Needless to say, regardless of Kremlinite claims to the contrary MAX is not actually a true domestic product:

Especially ironic is the fact that the messenger, positioned as “completely domestic”, uses libraries from “unfriendly countries”. The Ukrainian uCrop library from Yalantis, as well as components from the United States and Poland, were found in the MAX code. Critics sarcastically call it “a secure national messenger with data leaks directly to the Dnipro offices.

The Russian National Messenger using stuff from Ukraine, absolutely beyond all parody at this point. The Russian State BTW has no stake in MAX officially, it is the project of VK Management whose CEO is Vladimir Kiriyenko who is the son of Sergei Kiriyenko who is the Head of the Presidential Administration. The State is just helping one of their own, needs of the Military be damned.

Vladimir Kiriyenko, New CEO of VK Russia

The Government was already starting to force Students and Parents to use MAX back in the Summer of Last Year and that trend is still ongoing in Russia, that and the new Telegram Restrictions are part of the same program. Helping out Kiriyenko the Younger and his friends and family by raising the value of their VK/MAX shares.

Let’s now take a look at how Russian Troops are reacting starting with Papyrus who most of my Readers should already be familiar with:

The Ukrainians and Pindos (derogatory Russian slang for Americans) just cut off our military from Starlink in order to worsen the coordination of the advancing Russian army.

After that, the RCN decided to keep up with its Western partners and fucked us by slowing down Telegram in order to definitively finish off coordination and communication between all Russian troops!

That’s what I call a coordinated and combined strike from Russia’s enemies.

The RCN Papyrus is talking about is Roskomnadzor which is the Government Agency responsible for monitoring mass communications/media in Russia. Papyrus here is speculating that the Russian Military being cut off from Starlink about a week ago and the timing of this attack on Telegram may be related in some way and that’s a fairly logical assertion. Or maybe he is just dumbfounded that the Kremlin would hit the Army with this attack on Telegram right after they were shut out of Starlink. When I read about this last night my first reaction was shit they are seriously doing this immediately after the Military lost Starlink access?. It’s reaffirming to see that Papyrus whom I quite admire had the same first reaction.

The Starlink cut off which happened on the 4th is mostly affecting drone operations.

Vodoo

The Telegram slowdown which happened a bit over a day ago is basically hurting tactical coordination of all ground forces.

Papyus of course is an author and commentator these days so let’s check out what guys still at the front are saying. The following is from the channel of Dimitry Borisenko who has over 100k followers:

My comrades from among the military in the SMO comment on the situation after disabling telegram, here are a few audio messages that I translated into text for security purposes.

- We haven’t taken it well! About 95-98 percent of our personnel probably communicate in Telegram groups, including the one that was created by me personally and registered in a normal, official manner, that is, legally.

- Of course, it is very sad for us. I’ll tell you that I have my own reconnaissance group in Telegram, now it’s useless!

- It is almost impossible to send video files, reliable timely information. Everything is slow, everything is too late. Of course, damn, it’s bad. What more can I say?

- Telegram was just really the main channel for managing troops, exchanging reliable, timely information: videos, photos, maps. Everything was simple and everything was fast; everything could be encrypted quickly in premium. Now there is no such thing, here you are, even the information that is being received is impossible to verify!

Basically, opportunities lost due to time lost and coordinating between units bigger than a fire team is now very hard. Yesterday the channel “How I went to war” ran buy a Russian Drone Operator from “Strike Group Ireland” named Platon posted 2 concrete examples of how critical the abilities provided by Starlink and Telegram were:

Let’s look at the situation using two specific examples from our recent past.

Aerial reconnaissance of unit N found a self-propelled gun of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a shelter in the middle of the settlement N

Five minutes after the detection, the coordinates of the target and a detailed video for this were uploaded to a secret chat, readable by all drone operators, scouts and gunners in the relevant sector of the front.

The hunters knew how to approach the target based on the uploaded video. Where are the branches, where are the nets, where is the infantry on lookout. Also the nature of the target is quickly factored in - the thickness of the armor, the vulnerabilities under the armor and grill, all that

Twenty minutes after the target was detected, the first drone with the appropriate ammunition strikes.

Forty minutes after the target was detected, it caught fire

The fact of the kill was confirmed by aerial reconnaissance

All those involved entered the relevant paragraph in their reports, attached to them a video “from the first person” and a video of objective control.

After that, they immediately switched to other tasks.

Example number two

The enemy threw two tanks and an infantry fighting vehicle with troops into an attempted breakthrough. One of the dozens of maviks hanging over the front line around the clock saw the armored group

Information about the development was broadcast in real time via video. Who’s going, where they are, what they’re doing, where our arrivals impact

My attack drone was over the targets 20 minutes after they were detected

By this time, one of the two tanks and an infantry fighting vehicle were already on fire. Corpses of paratroopers lay around the infantry fighting vehicles, and the surviving tank hurriedly ran back under the stars raining down on it.

None of the units participating in the disco were identified and hit by the enemy.

As it was not revealed during the two previous years of the war

Despite the active use of telegram, the creator of which is there in Paris, blah blah blah.

(what Mamatov means with that italic text is that despite Durov’s bad relationship with Moscow and his being squeezed by the West that there has so far been no case of Telegram turning over the data of the Russian Military to the hohols)

Now, please tell me how we can achieve such results without using the Internet and messenger.

Just let’s use practical examples, not theory.

***

Starlink was cut off, I don’t care, they found a replacement. If they cut off Telegram, we’ll find an analog or install a VPN

We know how to fight

We are working and we will continue to work

Yes, once again, not “thanks”[to MoD], but “despite”.

Now just understand that as of right now the Russian Armed forces can no longer do what Drone Operator Platon just described above, but the hohols still can.

Some aesthetic pictures from Irelands Telegram Page:

Strike Group Ireland

Under 13/52 Lets Kill Them! is written “strike the jews, save Russia, Race, Motherland”. Like always Respected Readers, the men fighting this war on Russias behalf are nothing like what Escobar, Ritter, etc would have us believe. Obviously, these guys aren’t fighting against “nazism”

So, what does all this mean long term? Nothing “game changing” IMO. In the post from Platon above he wrote: Starlink was cut off, I don’t care, they found a replacement. If they cut off Telegram, we’ll find an analog or install a VPN. Eventually Russian Troops in that hell and the volunteers supporting them will find some kind of work around and Platon seems to hint that they already have found one in Starlinks Case. Russian Soldiers aren’t stupid and the volunteers helping them aren’t handicapped by lack of brains and dedication but rather by lack of money and the Kremlin constantly trying to make their work harder (by slowing down Telegram for example). In the short to midterm more Russian Troops will die and be maimed that didn’t need to, advances will go from a crawl to borderline nonexistent probably. The Ukrainians will make more minor gains then they otherwise would be able to due to the Russians being unable to coordinate responses to developing events on the ground fast enough. But in the grand scheme of things the end result will just be more Russian Blood spilt over sheds and outhouses in Donestk, Zaporozhe etc than would otherwise be necessary.

Back in November I wrote the following in my post entitled “Stupid War Update” about the much hyped “Pokrovsk Cauldron”:

the SMO is the “nothing ever happens” meme in war format. None of Russia’s scattered but albeit genuinely impressive accomplishments at the tactical level have any chance of coming together and translating into operational level success because at the operational level the war is being fought aimlessly on Moscow’s end and it seems like this is becoming the case on Kiev’s end as well

We are only around 3 months out from when I wrote that but so far, I don’t see any indication of that dynamic changing. The Russian Military not having secure comms for the time being isn’t going to change the fact that as of now Kiev is fighting just as aimlessly as Moscow. Neither side has an overall victory strategy besides some vague notion of attrition. I genuinely disdain the pro Kremlin bloggers who write breathless “battlefield updates” about the latest 5-10 kilometers Russian Troops have taken while simultaneously claiming that Russia is going to win via Ukraine running out of men or “off the shelf weapons” as a critic put it to me in one of my comment sections. It’s like the retards know somewhere deep down that the 5-10 kilometers here and there don’t matter therefore there is no real battlefield strategy at the operational level, therefore “muh attrition”. This total lack of any coherent Operational Vision has long been apparent on Russias end but since retreating from Kursk it’s been becoming more and more apparent in regard to the Ukrainians as well. I discuss that a bit in that post of mine about the battle of the century aka the “Pokrovsk Cauldron” (which has since gone nowhere months after both Pokrovsk and Minograd have fallen like I predicted). Over the past few months, we have seen Russia advancing steadily in Zaporozhe while the Ukrainians attacked over exposed Russian positions in Kupyansk. These Ukrainian attacks pushed the Russians out of central Kupyansk and into the Northern part of the city. Now the Ukrainians are attacking the Russians near the “strategically important” town of Gulyapole which Russia liberated back in December. In the meantime, Russia is again advancing around Kupyansk because the Ukrainians that were attacking them have been redeployed to Zaporozhe. Do you see how this works? Both sides are just making opportunistic lunges when they see the opportunity, but these lunges are disconnected from any over all Operational/Strategic Plan for winning the dumb ass war.

LOOK!!! A map that shows the rough outline of where the front is located around Gulyapole with blue arrows on it!!! IM A BATTLEFIELD UPDATER NOW11! (Gulyapole is where you see Гуляиполе towards the bottom left)

Now in theory Gulyapole is a strategically important town because it’s located in the last strongly fortified area on the road approaching Zaporozhe City which is about 60 something kilometers to the West.

Now in semi seriousness the red dot with the little outline of the town is Gulyapole. The squiggly black line underneath орехов is very, very, very roughly where the Ukrainians main/strongest defenses are in Zaporozhe Oblast. As you can see this makes Gulyapole strategically important strictly in theory because in theory Russia could totally outflank the main Ukrainian defensive belt in Zaporozhe Oblast from the east and roll up the AFUs strongest positions all the way to capital of the Oblast where you see Запорожье on the left side of the map. If the Russian Armed Forces were capable of doing that they would be in striking distance of Dnipropetrovsk before too long which is where you see Днепр on the map just north of Zaporozhe. But that is all fan fic. A town, object, etc can only be “strategically important” when there is a strategy for winning the war in the 1st place besides “muh attrition”. Furthermore, the material and human resources to execute said strategy need to be on hand and as of now Russian Troops don’t even have comms at the tactical level nor do they significantly outnumber the Ukrainians man for man.

The Ukrainians in turn just haven’t launched any serious offensives anywhere since Kursk and the current hyped-up attack they are conducting right now is a nothing burger. For one, not even doomer Russian Channels are talking about it other than saying “yeah shits tough over there now”. Let’s say the Ukrainians even manage to fight their way back to the outskirts of Gulyapole? Then what? Russia surrenders? All that can possibly happen is Ukraine gains a few dozen Kilometers (which is unlikely) before Russia sends reinforcements. Then Ukraine finds another weak spot, makes a lunge and meanwhile Russia starts eating away at Kupyansk again and restoring what they lost around Gulyapole rinse, repeat, rinse repeat over the next 6 or so months. This would be the basic dynamic of the war regardless of whether or not Russian Troops had reliable comms at the tactical level. It’s just without the comms more of them will die and Ukrainian attacks might gain 5 Kilometers here instead of 0 and 10 Kilometers there instead of 5.

You can get a new leg Ivan but what about the value of Kiriyenko's VK/MAX shares?